Free energy, entropy production and die-off. LO28722 Part 2

From: AM de Lange (amdelange@postino.up.ac.za)
Date: 06/20/02


Linked to LO28721 (Part 1.)

Part 2. The identity of die-off.

Dera Organlearners,

Sureness ("identity-context") is essential to all creative activities. In
part 1 the context of die-off was sketched. Let us now explore its
identity.

As i have written in part 1, i have experience in several kinds of
die-off. Allow me to describe some of them. Consider the die-off of
succulent plants. I have about a thousand square metres under fibre glass
roof. I call it an aridarium and not a hothouse because i do not need to
heat it. I only need to keep out the rain. The production of succulent
plants, initially cacti from the Americas, soon became more than what the
aridarium could shelter. So i planted some of them outside in beds to grow
up into mature plants.

Some cacti coming from dry savannahs made it. But others from even drier
places like the genus Ferrocactus (North America) did not make it. At
first they grew for several years beautifully. But because of the higher
humidity in Pretoria (which is seldom too high) they got fungus infections
on their skin. This happened to the older parts of the skin already a
couple of years old. Furthermore, the roots of these plants are usually
also very susceptible to small nematodes. (Nematodes are tiny worms which
cannot be seen by the naked eye.) Nematodes need a moist soil to live in.
After a couple of years a root infected by nematodes begins to rot. This
rot creeps to the base of the plant and eventually into the plant itself.
Thus the plan dies.

Slowly the number of fungi and nematodes outside multiplied, having found
favourable hosts in these cacti. The pathogenic load on these cacti
increased and more of them began to rot. An unusual amount of rain in a
couple of days triggered their die-off. Within a week half of the fungus
and nematode infected plants died off. The pathogenic load on them had
become too much.

I also keep fishes in aquarium tanks. Here i had once a die-off and a
couple of times close encounters. In each case i had too many fish in
a tank because of space problems. A 25% water change with clean
water is done regularly every third day. Each tank also has a biofilter
to remove continuously uneaten food and debris from the water. The
filter is cleaned regularly once every two weeks. The fish are fed
regularly twice a day. See figure 1 at

  http://www.learning-org.com/graphics/LO28722_DieOff_1.gif

The routine above implies that the top line "food added" increases
linearly. (Actually, it and all other lines have a "saw tooth" appearance
because of regular water changes.)

Not all the food is eaten because too many fine particles were included in
its manufacture. Thus the gradient of the line "food used" is slightly
less. Micro-organisms have to digest this uneaten food with its
carbohydrates, proteins and vitamins just like the fish. Just like fish
they use this food as a source of fuel (free energy) for working and as a
source of organisation (ordered entropy) for tissue building. Just like
fish they excrete simple reduced molecules (like ammonia and hydrogen
sulfide) as end products. This is represented by the curve "anaerobic
end-products". The ideal is to have this line linear and with almost no
gradient like the section before "first signs". This usually happens in
pristine nature.

The action of the biofilter is not only to clear the water of debris, but
especially to convert the dangerous reductive end products into far less
oxidative end products (like nitrate for ammonia). In nature this graph is
a horizontal, straight line because aquatic plants and vegetation on river
banks extract most of these end products. But in a tank this graph
increases at first linearly because of too little water changes. At the
time "first signs" the biofilter begins to run at full capacity. It
cannot cope with any additional bioload. It is then when anaerobic
bacteria begin to flourish. Whereas the aerobic end-products begin to
level off, the anaerobic end-products begin to increase sharply.

The fish in the tank also begin to behave abnormally. Some kinds get
aggressive while other kinds get numbed. Whatever they do, they begin to
eat irregularly. Consequently the bioload (entropy load) on the aerobic
micro-organisms and bacteria in the biofilter becomes even more. Since the
filter is operating at full capacity, the anaerobic bacteria get even more
opportunity to flourish in the tank. Thus the graph "anaerobic
end-products" begins to rise sharply.

At the stage "die-off" the anaerobic bacteria begin to do more harm than
the good doing aerobic bacteria. Suddenly the water becomes deficient in
oxygen, despite aeration by a bubble stone. The aerobic bacteria die off
in favour to the anaerobic bacteria. Soon afterwards the fish begin to die
off too. Their bodies become even more food for anaerobic bacteria. In two
to three hours the die-off is completed, compared to the months preceding
it. What remains is a tank with dark coloured, murky water and an evil
smell. This die-off is so sudden and so severe that unless the aquarist
stops all other activities, remove all dead material, do massive (95%+)
water changes as well as clean the filter, it cannot be prevented.

What few people realise, is that oxygen has a higher free energy for
combining to other elements than any other element, except fluorine.
Billions of years ago the oxygen content of the atmosphere was less than
1% whereas it is now 20%. This oxygen has been released gradually from
compounds by chlorophyll containing unicellular organisms (like spirulina)
which utilised the high free energy and low entropy content of sunlight to
do so. They prepared a free energy rich environment though billions of
years for higher ordered forms of life to flourish. But as the oxygen
content in an aquarium and thus its free energy begin to diminish at the
point die-off, this process of evolution is reversed within a couple of
hours -- all higher ordered forms of life die off.

To summarise:- having an over crowded tank, a too small biofilter and too
few water changes created a condition in which the bioload could not be
handled indefinitely. As the condition worsens from the time "first signs"
because of increasing the bioload (entropy load), die-off becomes
unavoidable.

Let us now contemplate the ultimate in die-off, namely that of Homo
sapiens (humankind). A tentative free hand graph of this die-off is
presented in figure 2

  http://www.learning-org.com/graphics/LO28722_DieOff_2.gif

Both the graphs "supply" and "price" had not been prepared meticulously on
exact data. The first reason is that i had to take into consideration all
kinds of fossil fuel (coal, oil and gas) produced. In this data there are
many gaps, especially before the 20th century. For example, the 9th
edition (1876) of the Encyclopaedia Britannica has an in depth study on
coal, but nothing similar on crude oil or natural gas. The curve "price"
is based on the weighted average of the prices of all kinds of fossil
fuel, i.e. coal, oil and gas. The prices of coal and gas differ from
country to country, making it difficult to calculate average price for
fossil fuel globally.

Secondly, i tried to represent my holistic impression from memory
after having studied hundreds of reports over many years. (My first
study was so far back as in 1964 as a student in industrial chemistry.
My task was to do a survey on the fossil fuels of South Africa.) A
site like
< http://www.dieoff.com >
has far better physical data to contemplate, but unfortunately, far too
little economical data. I tried to give an overall picture of both "supply"
and "price" so as to present the greater perspective. It will take far
more than one person like me to produce exact graphs for both with
all their fractal ups and downs. The most difficult part will be to take
into account inflation through several centuries, this inflation being a
phenomenon inherent to all limited sources of wealth.

These two graphs are tentatively. Hence the time scale should not be
followed rigidly. The time scale can be shifted, give or take 10 years as
is indicated by the arrows <---|->. In some countries the die-off is
sooner while in others it is later, something which I will explain soon.
Although tentatively, these two graphs up to 1990(+/-10) suggest
humankind's mental perception of the production of fossil fuel and its
value. They tell of humankind's fixation to the paradigm of "creating
wealth by using wealth machines". But from 1990 they tell how this
paradigm will bring all of humankind into unprecedented tribulations.

The curve "supply" in figure 2 depicts physical data on fossil fuel. Note
how it corresponds to some extend to the curve "food used" in figure 1.
The difference is that "food used" increases at first linearly whereas at
first the increase of "supply" accelerates up to about 1980(+/-10). Most
worrying to me is that people generally think of the supply of fossil fuel
like the linear "food added" in fig 1 rather than the nonlinear "supply"
in fig 2. They base this linear thinking on the belief that scientists
will discover a new source of free energy and that engineers will make it
available to humankind. I have explained in part 1 why i consider such a
belief as wishful thinking.

The curve "supply" for crude oil alone rises much faster with two steep
rises, one in the middle seventies and one in the late eighties. But the
ffect of adding the curves for coal and gas makes the curve look smoother
and not rise as fast.

The curve "price" depicts economical data on fossil fuel. The difference
between "price" and "supply" is that the former has an inflation factor.
In other words, after 1980(+/-10) it increases upwards exponentially
rather than decelerate like "supply" (fig 2) or "food used" (fig 1). It
will continue with this exponential acceleration even after die-off on
"supply" has been reached. Only a couple of decades later will it have a
die-off too when even the die-hards begin to realise that a fossil fuel
based economy has no future anymore -- that the paradigm of "creating
wealth by using wealth machines" had been a grand bubble which had
bursted.

In the region of 1980(+/-10) the first signs of die-off began to show. The
freeing of fossil fuel did not accelerate anymore. Thus the price of each
kind of fossil fuel began to increase rapidly. Acquiring wealth machines
became a debit rather than a credit to those 3rd world countries having
little deposits of fossil fuel and tiny stock markets. For them the graph
has to be shifted to the left (earlier times). Thus their die-off already
began. But for leading and following countries combined, the graph
"supply" will begin to invert at approximately 2010(+/10). Limited
supplies cannot meet anymore the persistently increasing demands. One by
one these countries will enter die-off, the leading countries last.

To understand what will happen in your own country, you will have to study
the histories of countries which already lost the race for wealth and thus
are caught in the grip of die-off. Use 1980 as a tentative date. Search in
the news archives for countries in which poverty and famine, organised
crime and official corruption, a disrespect for the values of society and
a negative attitude to the advancement of civilisation began to increase
hand over hand. In those countries despots, nepotists and war lords began
to pop up everywhere. The good of the commons began to give way to the
greed of the devious. Democracy began to suffer at the hands of
opportunists misusing its military power. Children were used as freedom
fighters, drug traffickers and sex slaves. You will find such countries in
every continent, but especially in Africa.

The following happens in the economy of a country based on creating wealth
with wealth machines, but having little reserves of fossil fuel self. The
exponentially increasing price of imported fossil fuel cannot be balanced
by exports based on using it. Businesses in all economic sectors become
increasingly bankrupt. Since the economy and activities of society are
based on fossil fuel, those becoming jobless are excluded from virtually
all organisations of society, even those maintained publicly by government
because of decreasing tax revenue. The gap between the income of the poor
and those still able to exploit the advantage of a fossil fuel driven
economy increases radically. Since they can afford little in health,
housing and education, their quality of life deteriorates rapidly. The
worst off are the children who become the slaves for every hideous
practice.

For example, in my journeys through Southern Africa I have seen people who
could not afford even spectacles. They could not read to increase their
knowledge digestively. I have observed people who could not afford protein
food (meat or fish) even once a month. Their bodies thinned out to a
skeleton covered by skin. I have observed people who live upon every
protein thing that moves -- toads, snakes, worms and rats. When that is
not available, they have to live by eating leaves, grass and roots. I have
observed children who never have tasted milk, not even mothers milk
because of a lack of protein. Teenagers looking like pre-school toddlers
will sell themselves for anything. They are the victims of an economy
based on wealth machines after die-off has set in. Forty years ago nobody
would even have imagined it.

It is said that the peoples of Africa just not have the culture, political
will or even genetical make-up to keep up with the global economy. It is
absolutely not the case. It is actually like a business having to
downsize. Many businesses follow the strategy that the last to be employed
is the first to be laid off. In the case of fossil fuel induced die-off it
will be the same, not because of strategy, but of necessity. Africa was
the last joining the global economy based on the paradigm of creating
wealth by using wealth machines. Many of its countries have already been
the first to drop out of this race. Why?

Were it only for material die-off, these countries would not have suffered
so immensely. But there is also a spiritual die-off which goes hand in
hand with the material die-off. The reason is that "free energy" has not
only a material dimension, but also a spiritual dimension! Just as a
wealth-machine needs "free energy" to operate, the spirit also need "free
energy" to create spiritual wealth. The vast difference between a material
wealth-machine and a creative spirit is that the wealth-machine needs an
external source of "free energy" to operate while the creative spirit have
to recharge its "free energy" self from within. The creative spirit cannot
be filled with fuel like a car's tank or be plugged into a main supply
like an electrical gadget. Deluging the creative spirit with information
so as to try and make it operative has exactly the opposite effect -- it
strangles the creative spirit, destroying slowly its capacity to recharge
itself.

In the case of an aquarium with fish the die-off became inevitable because
of an increasing bioload. In the case of the globe with humankind the
material die-off became inevitable because of an increasing mechanoload.
However, the spiritual die-off will be caused by an increasing infoload.
It will be claimed incessantly that information which exists outside is
more important for survival than knowledge which lives within. But few
will know that whereas information is rich in chaotic entropy, knowledge
is rich in ordered entropy.

That which recharge the creative spirit is its creativity. It happens
because of the cycling between digestive and bifurcative events. But when
one or both of these creative events are denied, we find that as material
die-off begins in a country, the creativity of its people also begins to
suffer. The less the creativity and thus creative experiences self, the
less the respect for the creativity and creations of others. Thus crime
and ignorance begin to rise. People become used to dealing with issues in
a destructive manner. Their minds become polluted by negative statements
and criticisms. Those who still get formal education become subjected to a
deluge of information on specialised subjects rather than mastering a
comprehensive knowledge how life fits together. The spiritual die-off is
inevitable, unless paradigms are shifted.

The renaissance of Africa will not happen by way of industry and
technology as well as the associated brainwash of information. The rapid
growth of industry and technology worldwide and African countries being
the last to get in caused their very demise -- the first countries to get
out in a shattered condition, materially and spiritually. What is even
worse, where they can still be milked to subsidise the wealth machine
economies of the leading countries, it is done at cut throat conditions.
The renaissance of Africa will rest squarely on the shoulders of the
peoples of Africa, using what they have self and stop subsidising those
fixated on the paradigm "creating wealth by using wealth machines".

South Africa is very fortunate that its own die-off proceeded relatively
slow. I personally think that its die-off began in 1976 -- aterially the
sharp rise in the price of crude oil and spiritually the Soweto riots.
What dampens the physical die-off is its vast coal reserves, its superior
mining industry and its own production of wealth-machines to some extend.
Unfortunately, the influx of immigrants and the attacks of valuta
speculators offset this dampening. What dampens the spiritual die-off is
its democratic reform, its religious nature and its education with its own
knowledge production. Unfortunately, the deluge of global information and
the demands by leading countries to conform to their own practices also
offset this dampening.

It is because of this dampening of both the physical and spiritual
die-offs despite the offsets that many South Africans have still a
positive state of mind as well as hope for the future. But this will not
tay the same. As die-offs commence in more parts of the world like with
the Asian tigers several years ago, our material wealth as well as
spiritual wealth will become severely shaken. Furthermore, it will suffer
immensely should we not know what we are up to and make strategic plans in
advance.

The situation in South Africa has become bleak since its own die-off began
in 1976. But it would have been a desperate situation like in many other
African countries were it not for the dampening factors mentioned above.
Even though bleak, the situation is such that it gives South Africans
valuable experiences to make strategic plans for the future and see them
through. Together with our unique history to learn from, we are in the top
ten best positions to avoid the tragic consequences of die-off when it
becomes global. Whether we will become wise soon enough, is another
question. May the coming world congress in Johannesburg on sustainable
economies make sufficient South Africans aware to act swiftly and
decisively.

Despite all which i have written, what strangles my soul most is this
"Follow the leaders, they are right behind you". When i think of the
prophets in the Old Testament (Torah), their message to the people of
Israel were often not to follow the leading nations around them, but to
live in a way which did not shut out the poor and the strangers. They did
not tell Israel that it would lose its sovereignty before those leading
nations. But it happened.

Today we have a different organisation in the leading civilisations. They
gained commonwealth by organising themselves into a federation of states.
They think that this higher order will save them from demise. But, for
example, imagine what will happen in the USA when some of its states get
into "die-off". How solid will the federation stay when some states become
a debit rather than a credit to the nation? The recent electricity
blackouts in California were the first sign to such pending die-offs. What
will happen to Europe and its EU? How long will it last when some of its
present ailing members begin to experience die-off? We only have to look
at the USSR to know what will happen.

I am completely sure that so long as nations persist to create wealth by
using wealth machines, they will not become wise to the fossil fuel
induced die-off. They will not make strategic plans and put them swiftly
into action to dampen the gruesome effects of die-off. They will just act
as their followers, ignorant to what is causing their demise. One cannot
undo the laws of nature, not even LEC and LEP. Even a global corporation
or a federation cannot do it. We may not believe in a living God, but when
we try to defy the laws of nature, we are heading for a catastrophe. The
laws of nature apply independently of our knowledge of them. God reigns
independently of how much we care for His commands. Prophets or no
prophets, the future is not completely unknown to us. The future belongs
to those who care with love.

They who serve with love are wise
since words at most just sound nice.
The power of thoughtful caring deeds
sows for freedom much needed seeds.
The more authentic learning in schools,
the less society will suffer by fools.
Bring the excluded poor back into society
by promoting their inherent creativity
so as to avert humankind's coming demise.

With care and best wishes,

-- 

At de Lange <amdelange@postino.up.ac.za> Snailmail: A M de Lange Gold Fields Computer Centre Faculty of Science - University of Pretoria Pretoria 0001 - Rep of South Africa

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