Nick Arnett wrote:
> Economics is using models
> based on complexity to cope with adaptation behaviors, which is turning
> economics on its ear, since it was previously limited to brainless
> optimizing behaviors....
> As Kauffman and others make pains to point out, one needs to figure out
> if the model is adequate to the purpose at hand. ..
> [Host's Note: Hmm... So, let's go back to what we might learn from
> looking at things through this model. ...Rick]
Nick- thanks for your response which I have shamelessly shrunk for the
purpose of commenting. I believe Rick is right- it is worth taking a
little time to review this model, at least from my perspective. Here are
some issues which are of interest, to me:
1) all models start with some underlying assumptions, often unstated or
unnoticed just because they are part of the water in which we swim. One of
these, in economics is that there is a rational person which responds in a
certain manner based on economics. If that individual doesn't exist as a
separate person, there is a collective which, on the whole has this
charcteristic. If we step back, what are the stated and unstated
assumptions underlying the discussion and subsequent model
2) We know from complexity that one can not run the same model twice nor
is the model symetrical in that runing it forward to a point and reversing
it will not return us to the start. Exactly what does this mean in the
current context
3) Asimov's hero in the Foundation series, Harry Seldon, had a model of
what he called psycho-history. Is that what we are striving for in this
discussion?
In relation to this Peter Allen has built some very impressive models of
the development of transport systems (while with Progogine in the 70's)
and later a model of the fisheries (combining economics, social behavior
of the fishing fleets and ecology of the fish) and subsequently developed
a complex country model for Senegal- all of these seemed to perfectly
reflect the changing environments over time. A group of former Santa Fe
researchers have left to develop computer models to try to match the
behavior of the stock market. Historically, all of these models match the
curves and give us some way to rationalize the demonstrated behaviors. To
what end?
thoughts?
tom abeles
--tom abeles <tabeles@tmn.com>
Learning-org -- Hosted by Rick Karash <rkarash@karash.com> Public Dialog on Learning Organizations -- <http://www.learning-org.com>