Stupid Economy LO26010

From: Bill Harris (
Date: 01/29/01

Replying to LO25995 --

Andrew ( wrote:

> " It's the economy, stupid."

Nice quote, not so pleasant reality.

> Carly Fiorini CEO Hewlett Packard explains for his part in the "stupidity"
> that " -Earlier assumptions were based on the assumption of a soft
> landing. Uncertain economic conditions and the slowdown in IT spending
> have forced us to revise our guidance."

A correction: "... for _her_ part ..." (minor in its affect on your
> Yahoo! Minus 90% of peak value from $159 billion to $14.4
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> Arghhh!

There was a comic strip this morning that showed a graph (below) and
said essentially, "The good news is that our stock price has stayed
steady for three months now even in the face of no profit:"

          Stock Price

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0 ***

> Is there anyone on this list or even anyone in America who has any
> constructive advice for those leading here? Peter Senge once wrote that
> you could take the top fifty corporations in the US and substitute the CEO
> and board for chimpanzees and it would take five years for anyone to
> notice the difference to the "economy, stupid."
> Does anyone know how much America has invested in what At de Lange and
> others here might call or understand as 'authentic learning'?

I'm not going to pretend to have _the_ answer (although I did set up my
consulting work to focus on 2 of the problems I had seen companies
struggle with most often--essentially the systems thinking/system dynamics
and mental models parts of the 5D model).

I heard Glen Hiemstra ( talk about his view of
the next 25 years. He said that the last, largest wave of the US baby
boom was entering their peak spending years (ages 42-50, approximately)
now. Unless we hit a depression (which he didn't see as likely), he
thought the next 10 years should be robust. He also sees the US consumer
spending as driving the US economy and the US economy as driving the world

He blamed the recent downturn on Allen Greenspan's learning curve, on the
irrational exhuberance of investors who thought they'd get a return on
anything, and on the US Justice Department's suit against Microsoft. He
figured that Greenspan will fix things, as he won't want his reputation to
be that as the person who _really_ tanked the economy. (That was in
mid-December, before he made his change of heart visible.)

While I'm not at all representing these as my views, it is nice to find an
optimist with reasons in the current crowd.
> Well, let's hope these people get to find out what those strange Greek
> words above mean before the **** hits the ***.

I knew I should have studied Greek in college. :-)


Bill Harris                                  3217 102nd Place SE
Facilitated Systems                          Everett, WA 98208 USA               phone: +1 425 337-5541

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