LO and its environmental conditions LO30305

From: Heidi and Dan Chay (chay@alaska.com)
Date: 06/24/03


Replying to LO30273 --

At wrote:

 --- begin quote of At's msg ---
Dear Leo, it is this "dramatic change of the environment" which, as we
say locally, "will throw a spanner in the wheels to stop them turning".
An OO just not develops gradually into a LO. I now suspect strongly in
terms of my own rare experiences that it first have to prepare itself to
emerge into a LO. Then, when this "dramatic change of the environment"
unfolds itself driving the OOs to the edge of chaos, the prepared ones
among them will emerge into LOs. The others will cease to exist, or
become COs (Criminal Organisations). Think of the Enron saga.

What will the "dramatic change of the environment" be? One possibility
is when the supply of fossil fuel cannot meet the demands for it any
more. This is a physical possibility which will happen within twenty
years as we have talked about it some time ago. Another possibility is
an outbreak of a new virus, much more virulent than the recent outbreak
of SARS.

But what about spiritual possibilities? One is that the incidence of PIE
(Pathology of the Information Exlosion) may accelerate rapidly as
information becomes more rapidly available. I have observed the past few
years how the number of people with seemingly the Information Fatique
Syndrome (IFS) have increased rapidly even here in South Africa which is
far away from the information highway. Several incidents occured this
year which got me very worried. I suddently realised that especially the
presidents of countries are extremely prone to IFS. I think that the one
immediately north of our country is an example.

People having IFS are unable to learn new things. But for an OO to adapt
to a "dramatic change of the environment", its members will have to
learn what that change involves. But since too much of its members have
IFS, it will learn too little too late. Fortunately, the spirit of a LO
is to learn whatever it takes. That is why LOs will adapt to such a
"dramatic change of the environment". And prepared OOs will scrape
through by emerging into LOs.
 --- end of quote of At's msg ---

At, I see all these things adding to future's challenge, and more. Your
description of Information Fatigue Syndrome is so apt. I am surrounded by
people who suffer IFS, and sometimes experience it myself.

As a fisherman for many years, I used to spend my summers buffeted by the
weather on the Bering Sea. Since '98, having quit fishing, I've begun
gardening during the summer, mostly trying to grow edible plants. It's
very fun, and quite challenging. It's a great antidote to a bout of IFS.

Not having had any previous exposure to growing plants, I have been a slow
learner to apply what I knew in theory to practice. It has taken me until
this year to actually test our (geologically young) soil to learn that it
is deficient in Nitrogen, Phosphorous, AND Potassium, as well as being PH
5.5 acidic! Only this year have I managed to build compost boxes. And now
I suspect it will take more years at my pace to build up the soil.

At any rate, I was motivated to respond to your post, At, regarding the
industrialized world's dependency on high quality fossil fuels. I say
that as if I were detached, but it's my world, too, this industrialized
world. Almost everyone I know is implicated.

You cautiously allude to the possibility of fossil fuel not meeting
demands within twenty years. That seems like a safe bet to me. For
recent information on the topic, people might like to read any of the
following:

* Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage, by Kenneth S.
Deffeyes, 2001
* The Party's Over: Oil, War, and the Fate of Industrial Societies, by
Richard Heinberg, 2003
* Resource Wars: The New Landscape of Global Conflict, by Michael T.
Klare, 2002
* The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power, by Daniel
Yergin, 1991

John Sterman's excellent textbook on systems thinking and modeling titled
"Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World,"
shows a couple excellent pictures of the oil situation on pages 92 and 93.

Or check out these links:

http://www.asponews.org - ASPO stands for Association for the Study of
Peak Oil.
http://www.hubberpeak.com
http://www.dieoff.org -- This site has been re-organized.

Living here in Alaska, largely dependent on the internet for information
about the world environment surrounding me, feeling much on the periphery,
I am often challenged to weigh and balance quality of information,
multiple pictures of possible explanation, and multiple ladders of
inference.

I think the oil and natural gas problem you allude to, At, is happening
now, even if partly in anticipation. Natural gas prices in the U.S. have
doubled, and stocks in storage are at record lows. The U.S. has four LNG
ports -- and a recent explosion of about 20 more in planning stages.

"Fast" is such a funny concept. As I have been closely watching the
energy situation for years, I remind myself that 10 years is fast. Having
had what I considered credible information to anticipate our U.S. natural
gas situation and oil-driven potential for war, the unfolding of these
last few years has seemed excruciatingly slow.

Motives for this Iraq war have always been a confusing mess in the U.S.
mainstream press, but as the al Queda connection, WMD, and "democracy"
explanations become increasingly implausible even to mainstream American
perspective, the rarely spoken oil explanation makes more sense -- both
from the perspective of various mega-corporations and Bush's
administration. At any rate, the U.S. seems to have asserted control over
who gets to buy Iraqi oil at what price as far as I can see. The high
proportion of the world's remaining known reserves of conventional oil and
natural gas existing in that region is widely accepted.

I have read enough about "alternatives" and so-called alternatives like
"hydrogen economy" to not feel rosy about a rapid transition, either.

Who knows, I am forced to weigh and compare ladders and strings of
inference from this vantage on the world's periphery. The picture of our
dependency on these high quality primary energy fossil fuel sources does
strike me as quite compelling. And thus, driving my grrls to school, and
by participating in capitalist growth-addicted social organization, I find
myself implicated in the on-going, recurring miscellaneous explosion of
cluster bomblets in Iraqi childrens' hands and other destructive misdeeds.

This kind of awareness also leads to IFS, I think. People tell me it's all
too absurd to dwell on, drawing these kinds of connections -- which
strikes me as a defensive routine. We must be optimistic, I'm told in a
myriad ways.

My background as a bush pilot and skipper, learning always to anticipate
to survive, keeps leading me to think, "scenario planning," "scenario
planning." I find it ironic that Shell Oil was among the first
megacorporations to benefit hugely by shifting from strategic planning to
(strategic) scenario planning. Check it out in "The Art of the Long View:
Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World," by Peter Schwartz, 1991.

Hello out there, dear learning individuals...Who will ask questions to
spark dialogue about high quality energy fossil fuel dependencies and
immanent future's potential for a dramatic change in the environment? I
think Bush's administration views the energy situation as a zero sum game.
Do you? If so or if not, so what?

Grins,

Dan Chay

-- 

Heidi and Dan Chay <chay@alaska.com>

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