Replying to LO30305 --
Dear Organlearners,
Dan Chay <chay@alaska.com> wrote:
>At, I see all these things adding to future's challenge, and more.
>Your description of Information Fatigue Syndrome is so apt.
>I am surrounded by people who suffer IFS, and sometimes
>experience it myself.
Greetings dear Dan,
Once one is aware to its symptoms, its frequency of occurance is really
frightening.
>As a fisherman for many years, I used to spend my summers
>buffeted by the weather on the Bering Sea. Since '98, having
>quit fishing, I've begun gardening during the summer, mostly
>trying to grow edible plants. It's very fun, and quite challenging.
>It's a great antidote to a bout of IFS.
You are so right, doing something which occupies your mind without
blasting you with information.
Not having had any previous exposure to growing plants, I have been a slow
learner to apply what I knew in theory to practice. It has taken me until
this year to actually test our (geologically young) soil to learn that it
is deficient in Nitrogen, Phosphorous, AND Potassium, as well as being PH
5.5 acidic! Only this year have I managed to build compost boxes. And now
I suspect it will take more years at my pace to build up the soil.
At any rate, I was motivated to respond to your post, At, regarding the
industrialized world's dependency on high quality fossil fuels. I say
that as if I were detached, but it's my world, too, this industrialized
world. Almost everyone I know is implicated.
>You cautiously allude to the possibility of fossil fuel not
>meeting demands within twenty years. That seems like
>a safe bet to me.
The 20 years is only an overall prediction. Some countries will experience
something exactly like it much sooner. It is when their exports cannot pay
any more for their fuel imports. Here is a description by the Zimbabwean
Wilf Mbaga of his experiences:
"At the beginning of this year, I would queue for three hours to get fuel.
A few months ago, I often had to leave my car in the queue overnight. Last
week, my car was in the queue for five days - and I never got a drop. Like
most Zimbabweans, I am now grounded, unable to move further than I can
walk, ride a bicycle or find a rickety, overloaded, dangerous commuter
omnibus to carry me. And those are few and far between - the majority of
them having been parked in fruitless fuel queues since the beginning of
May when Zimbabwe ran out of petrol, diesel and aviation fuel. This is
just one more nail in the coffin of life as we used to know it in this
beautiful, once prosperous and promising bread-basket of Africa. Annual
inflation is currently estimated by economists at 450 per cent, although
the official figure is 270 per cent. any salaries have remained static,
while most have not increased more than 60-70 per cent at the most.
What does that mean at a personal level? The quality of life has
deteriorated considerably, leading to a mass exodus of literally millions
of Zimbabweans. Whoever has been able to wangle a visa or slip past the
authorities in many countries, mainly Britain and South Africa, has gone -
most in tears, reluctant to leave the land of their birth but compelled by
economic realities and survival instincts. For me, still living in
Zimbabwe, it means petrol was Z$74 a litre last year. The pump price is
now Z$450. But it is unavailable. So the black market flourishes and
petrol goes for around Z$2,000 a litre - if you are lucky. It means that a
loaf of bread, which last year cost Z$60, now costs Z$550 - and I have to
wait in an unruly queue for several hours to get it. A kilogramme of beef
was Z$200 before Christmas, 2002. It now costs Z$3,000 a kilogramme. Our
staple diet, maize meal, is also unobtainable in the shops. On the black
market street corners, a 10kg bag that used to cost around Z$100 now sells
for Z$3,000.
The list of shortages is endless. It includes water, electricity, matches,
soap, flour, sugar, margarine, cooking oil, bread, drugs, transport, spare
parts, skilled personnel, coal, political tolerance, etc. Although this
list comprises daily essentials, two of the most alarming recent additions
are seeds and cash. The seed shortage, occasioned by the haphazard and
chaotic land reform programme, is ominous for the future. If we don't have
seeds to plant today, what shall we eat tomorrow?"
>Living here in Alaska, largely dependent on the internet for
>information about the world environment surrounding me,
>feeling much on the periphery, I am often challenged to weigh
>and balance quality of information, multiple pictures of possible
>explanation, and multiple ladders of inference.
Dan, as the explosion of information continues, it will become
increasingly difficult to find the "few needles in the haystack", i.e.,
quality information. On internet it is already very bad. Do a search on
something like catalysis and see how much tripe is written on it.
>This kind of awareness also leads to IFS, I think. People tell me
>it's all too absurd to dwell on, drawing these kinds of connections
>-- which strikes me as a defensive routine. We must be optimistic,
>I'm told in a myriad ways.
Yes an awareness to major problems in different parts of the world can
cause IFS (Information Fatigue Syndrome). But searching for connections
between them helps to keep IFS away.
>My background as a bush pilot and skipper, learning always
>to anticipate to survive, keeps leading me to think, "scenario
>planning," "scenario planning." I find it ironic that Shell Oil was
>among the first megacorporations to benefit hugely by shifting
>from strategic planning to (strategic) scenario planning.
The deserts taught me the same. The greater the risks, the more i must
anticipate what might come next and how i will react to it.
South Africa's economy is almost the proverbial drop in the bucket. Thus
it is easy with large amounts of foreign money to change our exchange rate
dramatically. It needs only one whisper and through internet it gets
amplified within days. This leads to price changes. Businesses whose main
line is concerned with imports or exports may easily find them soon in
deep water or even beginning to drown. This has a domino effect into all
other kinds of businesses and organisations.
Our economy has become more risky decade after decade. Sometimes i think
that the risk has accelerated since the coming of internet. Most
organisations (actually their people) suffers as a result of it. They
ought to anticipate such risks and plan for them, but few do it. Why? They
lack the thoughts to do it. These thoughts are known as metanoia, a
defining character of LOs.
>Hello out there, dear learning individuals...Who will ask
>questions to spark dialogue about high quality energy fossil
>fuel dependencies and immanent future's potential for a
>dramatic change in the environment? I think Bush's
>administration views the energy situation as a zero sum game.
>Do you? If so or if not, so what?
I do not feel like asking questions. I feel like quoting a real situation
like that in Zimbabwe, described by Wilf Mbaga and how he experiences it.
The political, economical and social walks of life began to deteriorate
several years ago. To keep the support of voters, Mugabe began with his
land reform policy -- taking commercial farms away from their white owners
and giving them to every black person who pleases him, whether that person
has farming expertise or not (as in most cases). Farms became unproductive
so that foreign currency could not be earned any more by exports. In May
the fuel tap was finally closed, perhaps for a very long time. Within
eight weeks the supply of most commodities have dried up. Millions of
people face famine and close to a thousand are now dying per day.
Take this real situation as a possible scenario for your own country or
state within 20 years from now. What will you do (and more important) HOW
will you do it? Have LOs any role to play?
With care and best wishes
--At de Lange <amdelange@postino.up.ac.za> Snailmail: A M de Lange Gold Fields Computer Centre Faculty of Science - University of Pretoria Pretoria 0001 - Rep of South Africa
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