Hi Alfredo
> Why do you think scenario planning
> isn't so widely used? ?Do you think it is useful only for some
> organizations (like energy Companies) which plan for the very long-term?
In my experience, "scenario planning" is very widely used. In fact, I
can't think of one of my strategy clients over the past 20 years that has
not looked at alternative futures as an important part of the process of
deciding how to take their organisation forward. Very few companies, on
the other hand use "Scenario Planning" a la Shell (i.e. as the core
grammar of their strategic language, and the central element of their
planning process).
> Do you think this is the reason why high tech companies don't seem to be
> using scenarios?
There are, in fact, a number of high tech companies that use scenarios,
including most of the "household" names. Some do so extensively. For
reference I'd suggest that you check out the web-site of Northeast
Consulting (www.ncri.com). They specialise in this very area (i.e.
scenario planning for high tech companies). (As a disclaimer, I've done
some business with them on this topic in the fairly recent past, and
retain some tenuous links with them). Also of interest to you might be
the web site of the Global Business Network (www.gbn.org). It's less
informative than Northeast's, but it does better reflect the "Shell"
branch of scenario philosophy (it's a spin-off from Shell's planning
department). Both groups very much hold to the belief that the use of
scenarios is a critical element of any "true" learning organisation.
Hope this is of help. Good luck.
Richard
Richard Goodale
Managing Partner
The Dornoch Partnership
"Discovery, Creativity, Leadership"
--Richard Goodale <fc45@dial.pipex.com>
Learning-org -- Hosted by Rick Karash <rkarash@karash.com> Public Dialog on Learning Organizations -- <http://www.learning-org.com>